Report: Israel could take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure ‘in two days’
Special to WorldTribune.com
WASHINGTON — Israel could destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure with
three combat air squadrons, a report said.
A report by a leading aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the
Israel Air Force could destroy most of Iran’s infrastructure in two days.
The report by Yoaz Hendel, a senior adviser to Netanyahu, said air strikes
could be augmented by naval operations.
The Israel Air Force deploys an arsenal of munitions, including the U.S.-origin GBU-27 and GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster bombs that could penetrate Iranian nuclear facilities.
“The Israeli Air Force is capable of striking the necessary targets with two to three full squadrons of fighter-bombers with escorts to shoot down enemy aircraft,” the report titled “Iran’s Nukes and Israel’s Dilemma,” said. “However, most of the escorts will require refueling to strike the necessary targets in Iran. In addition, the Israelis can make use of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from their Dolphin-class submarines.”
The report, published by the Philadelphia-based Middle East Quarterly, was the first by a senior Israeli government official. The publication said Hendel wrote his report before his recent appointment by the prime minister.
Hendel, a military historian, asserted that Israel was expected to target at least five main Iranian nuclear facilities. He cited the Bushehr light-water reactor facility, heavy-water plant in Arak, uranium conversion plant in Isfahan, the uranium enrichment facility in Qom and the uranium enrichment facility in Natanz.
“Military planners may also feel compelled to attack Teheran’s
centrifuge fabrication sites since their destruction would hamper the
efforts to reestablish its nuclear program,” the report, released in late
December 2011, said. “However, it is believed that the Iranians have
dispersed some centrifuges to underground sites not declared to the IAEA
[International Atomic Energy Agency]. It is by no means clear that Israeli
intelligence has a full accounting of where they are.”
Hendel stressed that Iran has already fortified most of its nuclear
facilities. He said Natanz was mostly underground and surrounded by
Russian-origin TOR-M1 air defense batteries. Qom, designed to accommodate
3,000 centrifuges, has been built into a mountain.
“The Israelis may also choose to bomb Iranian radar stations and air
bases in order to knock out Teheran’s ability to defend its skies,
particularly if multiple waves are required,” the report said.
Hendel said the Israel Air Force deploys an arsenal of munitions,
including the U.S.-origin GBU-27 and GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster
bombs that could penetrate Iranian nuclear facilities. He said the Air
Force was training for deep strike missions since at least 2009 that
included air and rapid ground refueling.
In all, Israel might have to attack as many as 60 targets in Iran. The
report, citing Israeli electronic warfare capabilities, envisioned few
aircraft losses and cited possible attack routes, including flying over
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
“The difficulties also depend on the precise goal of the air strike,”
the report said. “A short-term, financially costly degradation of Iran’s
nuclear program can be achieved in one wave of attacks, but Israeli defense
analysts have estimated that a decisive blow could require hitting as many
as 60 different targets with return sorties lasting up to two days.”
The analysis marked the latest effort by Israel to enhance deterrence
against Iran. Middle East Quarterly said Hendel’s report reflected his
personal view, but diplomats said the study was released in coordination
with the Israeli government.
Hendel also envisions that Israel would target Iran’s energy sector in
an attempt to prevent a massive counter-attack. He said Iran was likely to
use both Hizbullah and Syria in any war with Israel.
“The Israelis will ultimately have to choose between launching an attack
likely to spark a large-scale regional conflict and allowing Iran to go
nuclear with dire long-term implications,” the report said. “Notwithstanding
some disagreement about the immediacy of the threat and possible
repercussions, the large majority of Israelis favor military action over
living with the ubiquitous threat of nuclear annihilation.”
